What's Up Real Estate - Jobs Reports

• JOLTS Report for August: The number of job openings surged by 8% month-over-month, reaching 9.6 million. This bucks the trend of the last three months. However, don't break out the champagne just yet. The hiring rate and separations rate (quits + layoffs) remained stable at 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. What this means is that while job openings are plentiful, they aren't necessarily translating into actual employment gains.

📈 September Job Report Highlights:

• Total Nonfarm Payroll: +336,000 jobs, better than the 12-month average of +267,000.

• Key Sector Gains:

  • Leisure & Hospitality: +96,000 jobs, outperforming a 12-month average of +61,000.
  • Government: +73,000 jobs, beating the average gain of +47,000.
  • Health Care: +41,000 jobs, a bit less than the 12-month average of +53,000.
  • Professional Services: +29,000 jobs, pretty much in line with the average of +27,000.
  • Social Assistance: +25,000, almost the same as the 12-month average of +23,000.

• Little to No Change:

  • Transportation: +9,000
  • Information Sector: -5,000

• Average Hourly Earnings: Increased by 7 cents to $33.88, a 4.2% rise year-over-year.

🔗 How It Ties with JOLTS & ADP Reports:

• JOLTS: High job openings but not turning into actual hires.
• ADP: Lower-than-expected job growth.
• BLS: Strong job gains, particularly in specific sectors.

🏦 Mortgage & Market Trends:

• 30-Year Mortgage Rates: Peaked at 7.74%, the highest in two decades. Triggered by a JOLTS report beat and Fed commentary.

• Purchase Index: Down 6% WoW and 22% YoY, lowest since 1996. Basically, higher rates are scaring off buyers.

• ARMs: Interest in adjustable-rate mortgages is up. People are looking for ways to dodge those high rates.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Touched 4.8% this week, influenced by the JOLTS beat but cooled down a bit with the ADP miss.

🤷‍♂️ What's Driving Rates?:

• JOLTs data, Fed commentary, quantitative tightening, and the job market. Pretty much a full house.

🗣️ MBA's Take:

• "The rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market."

🎙️ Broken Records:

• If it feels like déjà vu, it's because we're breaking the wrong kinds of records.

🤔 Dallas' Bottom Line:

• The mortgage landscape is tough right now due to a cocktail of factors, including jobs data and Fed actions. Anyone looking to enter the market needs to buckle up; it's a wild ride.