Happy Halloween - 2023

🎃 Happy Halloween, Everyone! 🎃

Hope you're all ready for a treat, because the financial world is serving up some interesting news that's anything but spooky.

Booming US Economy 📈

3Q GDP numbers just rolled in, and they're as sweet as Halloween candy. With a 4.9% annualized growth, this quarter was the best since 4Q 2021. Does this mean recession fears are like ghosts—just an illusion? Most likely. White House Economic Report

The Home Front 🏠

Pending home sales crept up 1.1% MoM. That's something, especially given where mortgage rates are right now. Just remember, we're still near 20-year lows. NAR Report

Central Banks' Hold Up 🏦

Looks like central banks are holding off on more rate hikes. If they were Trick-or-Treating, they decided to skip a few houses this time. Smart move.

Bonds and Mortgages 🏦

When 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit 5%, investors pounced like kids on a candy stash. This pushed yields back to 4.85%, also helping 30-year mortgage rates settle in the high 7%s. WSJ Report

New Home Sales 🏠

New home sales in September jumped like a kid in a candy store—12% MoM. How is this even possible with mortgage rates nearing 8%? Homebuilders have tricks up their sleeves, like offering rate buydowns. Census Report

Mortgage Market 📊

Fed's future? There's a 96% chance of no rate hike, and surprise—a 4% chance of a rate cut! Are we nearing the end of this tightening cycle? Most likely. Atlanta Fed

So as you enjoy your Halloween treats, remember that sometimes the economic news isn't as scary as it seems.

Stay safe, and have a ghoulishly good Halloween! 🎃👻